Ufuk Süleyman Oflaz

03Scenario-based short-term cash management

13-Week Cash Flow & Early Warning Model

A management model that tracks the company’s 13-week cash outlook by scenario and makes critical cash levels visible in advance.

Built by:

The problem

A company that looks profitable can run into a cash squeeze quickly when collections slip and payments bunch into the same weeks. A monthly budget is too coarse to show this risk; the problem usually builds within weeks, and by the time it is noticed the options have narrowed.

Why it matters

Cash squeezes usually form in specific weeks without showing up in monthly reports. By the time they are noticed, financing options have narrowed. A weekly view allows decisions to be taken in time.

Approach

  1. Build the cash view at weekly resolution, from opening to closing cash.
  2. Break collections down by customer, and payments into payroll, tax, social security, suppliers and financing.
  3. Run base, stress and worst-case scenarios on the same structure with explicit assumptions.
  4. Flag in advance the weeks in which cash falls below the minimum threshold.

What it examines

  • Weekly opening and closing cash
  • Expected collections and customer payment-delay assumptions
  • Payroll, tax and social security (SGK) payments
  • Supplier payments
  • Loan and leasing repayments
  • Minimum cash threshold
  • Base / Stress / Worst-case scenarios
  • Early-warning weeks made visible

Example output

Weekly closing cash under three scenarios, the minimum cash threshold, early-warning weeks below the threshold, and a weekly table from opening to closing cash.

Limitations

  • The model is only as good as its assumptions; collection assumptions should be compared with actuals regularly.
  • The 13-week view focuses on short-term liquidity; it does not replace a long-term financing plan.
  • Tax and social security payment dates should be confirmed against current legislation.

Related writing